Monday, November 26, 2012

ADVFN III Morning Euro Markets Bulletin -November 26th, 2012-.



ADVFN III Morning Euro Markets Bulletin



London Market Report
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London open: Markets start week on a weak footing
    Market Movers
    techMARK 2,071.81 -0.16%
    FTSE 100 5,812.96 -0.11%
    FTSE 250 11,864.08 -0.21%
- Market eyeing Eurogroup meeting tonight
- Inconclusive election results in Catalonia
- Qatar to sell warrants on Barclays


UK equities began the week with light losses despite what appears like relatively positive news-flow on a number of fronts. Thus, the easiest explanation for the above contradiction would seem to be that stocks may be taking a breather and consolidating last week's large bounce back.

In any case, there can be little doubt that was is forefront and centre on market's minds is tonight's meeting of Eurozone finance ministers, with an agreement that would allow for the disbursement of the next tranche of aid to Greece thought to be a possibility. In what would apparently amount to a worst case scenario, Finland has indicated that an agreement may not be reached until a meeting on December 3rd.

Meantime, and in the United States, retail spending in stores and online rose by 13% to $59.1bn in the four days starting November 22nd, trade group National Retail Federation announced yesterday. A year ago, sales advanced 16% over the holiday weekend.

As regards regional elections in Catalonia over the weekend; these seem to have been somewhat inconclusive, with barely any change in the balance of power between pro-independence and non-independence parties. But two trends seemed clear: a shift towards left-wing and anti-austerity political formations and a greater polarisation in the distribution of votes towards each extreme.
FTSE 100: Qatar takes profits on Barclays
Barclays is now leading fallers on the top share index. Qatar Holding plans to sell its remaining warrants in the lender, which are worth around £775m, yet it will remain its largest shareholder with a 6.7% stake.

Aberdeen Asset Management, Europe's second largest fund-manager, has just announced a 15% full year increase in underlying profit before tax, to £347.8m, versus £301.9m a year ago. Of interest, speaking on Bloomberg TV the company's Chief Executive, Martin Gilbert, indicated that one of his company's aims is to maintain a "progressive dividend policy", targeting a growth rate in the mid-teens.

Compass is an early gainer this morning after analysts at Nomura raised their target on the company's shares to 832p (from 800p). "Compass Group's results encapsulated the key attractions of the investment case: strong turnover growth (5.4%), excellent cash flow conversion and continued margin expansion (+8bp), these analysts wrote.
FTSE 250: SDL warns

Bacon and sausage supplier Cranswick served up a hefty increase in half year profit but said higher pig prices during the period were an on-going concern. Pre-tax profit rose 21% to £22.5m for the six months ended September 30th 2012, while revenues climbed 6% to £418.6m.

India-focused Essar Energy almost doubled revenues in the first half but saw this wiped out by costs, as well as regulation and coal supply problems in India. Group revenue was up 97% to $12.8bn, driven by the acquisition of the UK Stanlow refinery as well as higher refining revenues in India.

Business, translation and communications software company SDL said it expects a profits shortfall, following a review of the firm, as its struggles against poor sales and marketing execution, as well as the tough economic environment. "Management forecasts for the year are now considered to be too optimistic against market expectations," the group said in a company statement.

FTSE 100 - Risers
British Land Co (BLND) 541.50p +1.22%
Smith & Nephew (SN.) 664.50p +1.06%
British American Tobacco (BATS) 3,257.50p +1.04%
Compass Group (CPG) 722.00p +0.84%
Land Securities Group (LAND) 801.50p +0.82%
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI) (IAG) 170.30p +0.77%
Vodafone Group (VOD) 159.85p +0.72%
Hammerson (HMSO) 466.90p +0.62%
Unilever (ULVR) 2,387.00p +0.51%
Melrose (MRO) 217.40p +0.51%

FTSE 100 - Fallers
Barclays (BARC) 245.20p -3.54%
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBS) 290.00p -1.36%
BG Group (BG.) 1,065.50p -1.02%
Tullow Oil (TLW) 1,379.00p -1.00%
HSBC Holdings (HSBA) 620.20p -0.91%
Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) 46.05p -0.78%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 6,605.00p -0.75%
Standard Chartered (STAN) 1,427.50p -0.70%
ARM Holdings (ARM) 738.00p -0.61%
Wolseley (WOS) 2,799.00p -0.57%

FTSE 250 - Risers
Cranswick (CWK) 776.50p +5.07%
Essar Energy (ESSR) 124.30p +2.64%
IP Group (IPO) 112.20p +2.00%
NMC Health (NMC) 173.00p +1.88%
Oxford Instruments (OXIG) 1,320.00p +1.30%
Perform Group (PER) 400.00p +1.27%
Bumi (BUMI) 267.90p +1.21%
Great Portland Estates (GPOR) 459.90p +1.17%
BH Global Ltd. GBP Shares (BHGG) 1,133.00p +1.07%
Britvic (BVIC) 408.10p +1.01%

FTSE 250 - Fallers
SDL (SDL) 468.00p -8.41%
Centamin (DI) (CEY) 60.30p -6.80%
Stobart Group Ltd. (STOB) 106.30p -3.71%
Micro Focus International (MCRO) 573.50p -2.38%
Menzies(John) (MNZS) 577.00p -2.37%
Betfair Group (BET) 737.00p -2.06%
Kenmare Resources (KMR) 29.71p -2.04%
Supergroup (SGP) 602.00p -2.03%
Rank Group (RNK) 146.80p -2.00%
Drax Group (DRX) 531.00p -1.76%

FTSE TechMARK - Risers
Torotrak (TRK) 29.50p +6.31%
Innovation Group (TIG) 22.50p +1.12%
Optos (OPTS) 186.50p +0.95%
Corin Group (CRG) 69.50p 0.00%
Kofax (KFX) 280.00p 0.00%
Triad Group (TRD) 6.75p 0.00%
Parity Group (PTY) 19.50p 0.00%
Ark Therapeutics Group (AKT) 3.44p 0.00%
Oxford Biomedica (OXB) 2.40p 0.00%
Hiwave Technologies (HIW) 0.85p 0.00%

FTSE TechMARK - Fallers
Antisoma (ASM) 1.60p -8.57%
Promethean World (PRW) 16.25p -4.41%
E2V Technologies (E2V) 109.00p -3.54%
Wolfson Microelectronics (WLF) 188.25p -2.21%
Corin Group (CRG) 69.50p 0.00%
Kofax (KFX) 280.00p 0.00%
Triad Group (TRD) 6.75p 0.00%
Parity Group (PTY) 19.50p 0.00%
Ark Therapeutics Group (AKT) 3.44p 0.00%

UK Event Calendar
Monday November 26

INTERIMS
GB Group, Immunodiagnostic Systems Holdings, Quintain Estates & Development

Q3
Espirito Santo Financial Group SA

GMS
UBM

FINALS
Aberdeen Asset Management, Infrastrata

AGMS
Aisi Realty Public Ltd. (DI), Origin Enterprises, West Pioneer Properties Ltd. (DI)

Europe Market Report
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Europe open: Italian confidence drops below expectations
-ECB and EU Comission say Spanish banks qualify for EFSF and ESM
-Banks deposit 233.6bn euros overnight at ECB

FTSE-100: 0.18%
Dax-30: -0.27%
Cac-40: -0.61%
FTSE Mibtel 30: -0.55%
Ibex 35: -0.74%
Stoxx 600: -0.35%

The main European equity benchmarks have begun today's session with slight losses. That ahead of tonight's meeting of Eurozone finance ministers, with an agreement that would allow for the disbursement of the next tranche of aid to Greece thought to be a possibility.

In what would apparently amount to a worst case scenario, Finland indicated that an agreement may not be reached until a meeting on December 3rd.

Meantime, and in the United States, retail spending in stores and online rose by 13% to $59.1bn in the four days starting November 22nd, trade group National Retail Federation announced yesterday. A year ago, sales advanced by 16% over the holiday weekend.

As regards regional elections in Catalonia over the weekend; these seem to have been somewhat inconclusive, with barely any change in the balance of power between pro-independence and non-independence parties. But two trends seemed clear: a shift towards left-wing and anti-austerity political formations and a greater polarisation in the distribution of votes towards each extreme.
Retail stocks lead losses
Shares of German steel maker Thyssen Krupp are now registering some of the largest falls after analysts at Credit Suisse lowered their rating on the company's stock to neutral from outperform.

From a sector stand-point the worst performance is now to be seen in the following sectors: Retail (-0.56%), Banks (-0.70%) and Oil&Gas (-0.82%).
Weak Italian consumer confidence

Italy's consumer confidence index for the month of November has come in at 84.8 (Consensus: 86.3), versus 86.2 for the previous month. Slight fall in the single currency

The euro/dollar is now dropping by 0.15% to t e1.2962 dollar mark.

Front month Brent crude futures are now retreating by 0.379 dollars to the 110.95 dollars level on the ICE.

US Market Report
US Close: Stocks snap back, albeit on low volumes
-S and P 500 poised for best week since June
-Citi strategist Tobias Levkovich sees fiscal cliff resolution before year-end
-Baxter Intl. to acquire Gambro for 4bn dollars -WSJ

Dow Jones Industrials: 1.35%
Nasdaq Composite: 1.38%
S&P 500: 1.29%

The main US equity benchmarks closed the holiday shortened session with very large percentage gains. That as investors were busy tracking demand from American consumers in the days after Thanksgiving as a means of getting a better pulse on the outlook for the economy.

In fact, Friday's run higher capped the best week for the S&P 500 since June. From a technical point of view markets will now be watching to see if the benchmark can recover its 50 day moving average, at 1,420.

Never the less, it must be kept in mind that most trading desks were being manned by skeleton crews on Black Friday, as the day following Thanksgiving is known. Hence, trading volumes were rather low.

To be had in account, the so-called Black Friday marks the first day of the critical holiday shopping season for the country's retailers.

Market commentary Stateside attributed part the move higher in stocks mostly to the positive data released over the last two days in China (HSBC PMI) and Germany (the IFO index this morning).

There was also some optimistic market chatter regarding the supposed likelihood that the US Congress will be able to avoid the "fiscal cliff."

Possibly indicating some weakness in the outlook on the other hand, retail store chains such as Target and Toys R Us moved their openings into Thursday night.

For its part, the National Retail Federation has forecast a 4.1% increase in retail sales during the November-December holiday period this year, down from the 5 .6% increase seen in 2011. That would be the weakest performance seen in three years.

Even so, it is possible that the dislocations from hurricane Sandy have been playing a role.

Having said that, a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed two-thirds of shoppers said they were planning to spend the same amount as last year or were unsure about spending plans.

One big mover was Research in Motion, on the back of positive forecasts from analysts for its new Blackberry 10 phone.

Shares of Hewlett Packard also registered large gains.

Baxter International was said by The Wall Street Journal to be nearing a deal to buy Swedish medical-equipment maker Gambro for roughly $4bn.

The best performing sectors were: Electronic office equipment (2.95%), Food retailers (2.22%) and Medical Supplies (2.21%).

Acting as a backdrop, Citi equity strategist Tobias Levkovich said he sees a fiscal cliff resolution before year-end.

No US macroeconomic reports were scheduled for release.

Front month West Texas crude futures were up by 1.01% by the end of the day, reaching the $88.26 mark in early NYMEX moves.

US 10 year Treasury yields rose by 1 basis point, to 1.69%.

S&P 500 - Risers
Lexmark International Inc. (LXK) $25.61 +5.74%
Dell Inc. (DELL) $9.55 +5.41%
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) $1.95 +4.28%
Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) $12.44 +4.19%
Baxter International Inc. (BAX) $68.81 +4.07%
JDS Uniphase Corp. (JDSU) $11.63 +3.56%
Interpublic Group of Companies Inc. (IPG) $10.32 +3.51%
Whole Foods Market Inc. (WFM) $95.06 +3.25%
Fossil Inc. (FOSL) $86.20 +3.17%
Big Lots Inc. (BIG) $28.48 +3.15%

S&P 500 - Fallers
Exelon Corp. (EXC) $28.57 -0.97%
Edison International (EIX) $43.49 -0.75%
Wisconsin Energy Corp. (WEC) $36.19 -0.71%
TECO Energy Inc. (TE) $16.21 -0.61%
Ameren Corp. (AEE) $28.55 -0.59%
Southern Co. (SO) $42.03 -0.59%
Cablevision Systems Corp. (CVC) $13.98 -0.57%
Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. (PEG) $29.24 -0.54%
PPL Corp. (PPL) $28.08 -0.53%
International Game Technology (IGT) $13.13 -0.45%

Dow Jones I.A - Risers
Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) $12.44 +4.19%
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) $27.70 +2.78%
Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) $18.84 +1.95%
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) $70.20 +1.90%
Intel Corp. (INTC) $19.72 +1.86%
General Electric Co. (GE) $21.04 +1.74%
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) $193.49 +1.68%
United Technologies Corp. (UTX) $78.61 +1.66%
E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Co. (DD) $43.12 +1.65%
Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) $69.59 +1.64%

Dow Jones I.A - Fallers
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $69.56 -0.04%

Nasdaq 100 - Risers
Research in Motion Ltd. (RIMM) $11.66 +13.65%
Dell Inc. (DELL) $9.55 +5.41%
Whole Foods Market Inc. (WFM) $95.06 +3.25%
Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (MRVL) $8.07 +3.20%
Baidu Inc. (BIDU) $96.22 +3.20%
Fossil Inc. (FOSL) $86.20 +3.17%
Micron Technology Inc. (MU) $5.68 +2.90%
Electronic Arts Inc. (EA) $14.37 +2.86%
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) $27.70 +2.78%
Infosys Technologies Ltd. (INFY) $43.53 +2.76%

Nasdaq 100 - Fallers
Activision Blizzard Inc. (ATVI) $11.24 -0.97%
Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) $10.40 -0.29%
Citrix Systems Inc. (CTXS) $61.77 -0.21%
Netflix Inc. (NFLX) $82.95 -0.06%
FX and Commodities round-up
FX round-up: Greenback sidelined as risk appetite returns
The dollar tumbled against major rivals on Friday as appetite for riskier assets increased on the back of better than expected global data.

Demand for the greenback dwindled amid gains on Wall Street and European indices as well as upbeat Chinese manufacturing data.

A preliminary HSBC report showed activity rose to 50.4 in November, the first expansion in more than a year. A figure below 50 indicates a contraction and a figure above indicates an expansion.

Meanwhile the Ifo Institute's German business climate index rose to a better than expected 101.4 in November from 100 in October.

The dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six major rivals, declined almost 1% to trade at 80.190 on Friday.

The euro climbed to a three-week high against the dollar on optimism that Greece's lenders are close to reaching an agreement in order to access the next round of finanical aid. Investors also cheered Germany's encouraging business climate index.

The single currency touched a high of $1.2942 before later trading at around $1.2940 against the dollar.

The euro also rallied to a seven month high of ¥106.73, before slipping to around ¥106.64. Against the yen, the greenback rose 0.1% to change hands at ¥82.35.

Sterling advanced 0.6% to $1.6040.
Commodities: Crude rises as dollar tumbles
Crude oil futures moved higher on Friday, in lighter than usual post Thanks Giving trading, as the Dow Jones clocked up almost one per cent and the dollar eased against major currencies.

Crude for January delivery rose 90 cents at $88.28 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Normal floor trading was closed for the US holiday on Thursday and Friday's energy markets settled early on Friday.

Oil prices were supported by gains on Wall Street as investors cheered better than expected data from China.

A preliminary report on Chinese manufacturing activity rose to 50.4 in November, the first expansion in over a year. A figure below 50 indicates a contraction and a figure above indicates an expansion.

Meanwhile in Germany, the Ifo Institute's business climate index rose to a better than expected 101.4 in November from 100 the previous month.

Gains on Wall Street and upbeat data drove down demand for the greenback. A weaker dollar makes oil, which is priced in the US currency, cheaper for holders of other currencies.

On the ICE futures exchange Brent crude for January delivery rose 67 cents to $111.20 a barrel.

Among precious metals gold surged past $1,750 on Friday to log the strongest rise in over a month, as focus turned to upbeat data and as the weaker dollar boosted the gold's allure.

Gold futures for December delivery advanced $23.20 to $1,751.40 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange in lower than usual turnover following the US holiday.

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