Nick McDonald of Trade With Precision presents a concise technical analysis of these markets for the week ahead, using the Russell 2000® index and the ICE US Dollar Index® as pivotal focuses.
Sunday, September 30, 2012
ICE Futures US: Weekly Analysis of US Equity and Currency Markets.
Nick McDonald of Trade With Precision presents a concise technical analysis of these markets for the week ahead, using the Russell 2000® index and the ICE US Dollar Index® as pivotal focuses.
Saturday, September 29, 2012
GATA | THE GATA DISPATCH -September 29th, 2012-: Qatar worried about value of dollar and euro
Qatar worried about value of dollar and euro |  |
Reuters
Saturday, September 29, 2012
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/29/us-qatar-investment-idUSBRE88S...
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia -- Wealthy Qatar, a major investor in U.S. and European assets, worries that haphazard attempts by countries to shore up their economies could weaken the dollar and the euro, its prime minister said.
"What should happen is we should have a full package with a full strategy to solve the problems," Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, who also heads the country's sovereign wealth fund, Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), told U.S. financial broadcaster CNBC in an interview aired on Friday.
This month the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a program of heavy purchases of mortgage-backed securities in an effort to boost employment, but the U.S. government has so far failed to reassure financial markets that it has an effective plan to cut its budget deficit and boost economic growth.
The European Central Bank has also said it will buy bonds to protect economies from the euro zone debt crisis, but governments of weak countries such as Greece and Spain have not persuaded investors their debts can be cut to safe levels.
Sheikh Hamad said the central banks were right to act to prevent worse crises, but added: "With more printing money, without having a strategy, I believe the value of the money will go down very soon."
He did not give details of the economic measures which he believed Western countries should be taking, but said the risk of further volatility in markets was making investors such as Qatar cautious. Analysts have estimated the size of Qatar's sovereign wealth fund at around $100 billion.
"There are some questions with no answer up to now," he told CNBC.
However, Sheikh Hamad added that Qatar would retain holdings of strategic stocks and buy when prices dropped, and that it would continue to make new investments in promising assets.
He said he was optimistic about the longer-term future of the banking industry, since better regulation and capital-raising would strengthen banks after some years. He noted that QIA had a strategic stake in Credit Suisse and owned about 1 percent of Bank of America and 5 percent of Santander Brasil among other banks.
The gas-rich Gulf state has bought more than $5 billion or $6 billion of real estate assets over the last four to five months, mostly in the United States and Europe, Sheikh Hamad said. "If there is some good opportunity, why not?" he said of investing in crisis-hit Europe.
Qatar, which owns just over 12 percent of Xstrata (XTA.L), will help to determine the success or failure of Glencore's $32 billion offer for the miner.
Glencore was forced earlier this month to raise its bid price, offering 3.05 new shares for every Xstrata share instead of 2.8, after Qatari pressure. As a condition, however, Glencore imposed its own chief executive and largest single shareholder, Ivan Glasenberg, at the head of the combined group.
Xstrata's directors face a Monday deadline to decide their position on Glencore's higher offer.
Sheikh Hamad told CNBC: "We have no problem with the new price," but added, "Other aspects (of the proposed deal) have to be studied." He declined to elaborate.
This week Reuters quoted banking sources as saying Qatar Holding, one of the country's investment vehicles, was in advanced talks to buy a 49-percent stake in Brazilian billionaire Eike Batista's gold firm AUX for about $2 billion.
Qatar Holding subsequently issued a statement denying that such talks had taken place.
However, asked about Qatar's intentions towards AUX, Sheikh Hamad told CNBC: "We're studying it. Still there is no commitment from our side." Details of the proposal need to be presented to the board, he added without elaborating.
* * *
Join GATA here:
New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 24-27, 2012
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
New Orleans, Louisiana
http://www.neworleansconference.com/
Friday, September 28, 2012
GATA | THE GATA DISPATCH -September 28th, 2012-: Judge throws out CFTC's position limits rule:
Judge throws out CFTC's position limits rule | |
Reuters
Friday, September 28, 2012
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/28/us-cftc-positionlimits-idUSBRE...
WASHINGTON -- A federal judge handed an 11th-hour victory to Wall Street's biggest commodity traders today, knocking back tough new regulations that would have cracked down on speculation in energy, grain, and metal markets.
Judge Robert Wilkins of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia threw out the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's new position limits rule and sent the regulation back to the agency for further consideration.
Wilkins ruled that, by law, the CFTC was required to prove that the position limits in commodity markets are necessary to diminish or prevent excessive speculation.
He also ruled that the amendments to the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial oversight law "do not constitute a clear and unambiguous mandate to set position limits, as the commission argues."
The ruling is a major victory for traders just two weeks before parts of the new position limits rule were scheduled to go into effect.
The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association and the International Swaps and Derivatives Association brought the suit against the CFTC, arguing that the regulations would force their members to drastically alter their businesses, cost them tens of millions of dollars, and send customers fleeing.
Wall Street has also long argued that regulators have not proven that position limits would curb speculation in markets and prevent disruptive price spikes.
The CFTC and industry groups that brought the suit did not immediately have comment.
The agency passed the position limit rule last year, in a bid to limit the number of contracts traders can hold in 28 commodities, including oil, coffee, and gold.
* * *
Statement by CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton
on Ruling to Vacate Position Limits Rule
Friday, September 28, 2012
This is obviously tough news for those of us who believe there's too much speculative concentration in commodity futures and swap markets. While I respect the judgment of the court, there's no question that huge individual trader positions have the potential to influence prices in a way that hurts legitimate hedgers and ultimately consumers.
I will continue to push hard for a position limits rule, as mandated by Congress. This is clearly a setback but we can learn from it and continue this critical effort to help make our markets safe and fair.
GATA | THE GATA DISPATCH -September 28th, 2012-: Why gold bulls are too timid for takeovers
Why gold bulls are too timid for takeovers | |
The Globe and Mail, Toronto
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/market-blog/why-go...
Here's an open challenge to the world's gold producers: Start snapping up your rivals.
After all, gold is going higher, isn't it? Commerzbank AG believes it will hit $2,000 (U.S.) an ounce next year due to ongoing economic risks. And Bank of America believes it will rise to $2,400 an ounce by the end of 2014, thanks to ongoing economic stimulus efforts by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board.
Even gold executives, by nature usually conservative on gold prices, believe it will top $2,000 an ounce by this time next year, according to Bloomberg News.
If they're right, gold's winning streak will extend to 14 straight years. Its price has risen from a mere $272 an ounce at the end of 2000 to more than $1,750 today, for a total gain of about 550 per cent.
If the stuff you are mining is rising impressively each and every year -- and you are confident that the underlying fundamentals will drive it still higher -- it only makes sense to produce as much of it as you can, either by finding more or buying rival producers.
Gold executives talk a good game.
The chief executive of Nordgold told the Financial Times in April that a wave of mergers and acquisitions "should be inevitable" because of low valuations.
Goldcorp Inc.'s chief executive told Bloomberg News much the same thing this month.
"The development-company valuations have come down to where, at least on paper, it looks like there's some opportunities," Chuck Jeannes said. "There's a lot of looking going on."
So far this year, the looking hasn't exactly progressed into a torrent of deals.
According to Mergermarket, which tracks mergers and acquisitions globally, the total value of gold deals announced in 2012 is just $8.3-billion, as of September.
That puts deal-making within the gold sector on track to its lowest level since 2004. And it pales next to the $37.3-billion worth of deals in 2011 and $29.3-billion in 2010, when gold traded about $500 below its current level.
For sure, companies look like tempting takeover targets. For gold companies in the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs index, the average price-to-book ratio -- a key metric of a company's valuation by the market -- is now just 1.8, versus an average of 2.5 over the past decade.
So with deals to be had, why has the deal-making slowed so much?
It's hard to ignore the fact that the share prices of gold producers haven't been keeping up with the price of gold.
Over the past decade, the Gold Bugs index has lagged the price of gold by an astounding 130 percentage points.
Blame the underperformance of gold producers on high operating costs, widespread labour disputes and the popularity of bullion exchange-traded funds as the most likely destination for gold-seeking investors.
Either way, the lagging share prices have robbed companies of an important takeover currency, and they have made acquisitions look less rewarding than funnelling excess cash to shareholders in the form of bigger dividends.
Besides, some acquisitions have gone so badly that it wouldn't be surprising to learn that many chief executives are now downright scared of splashing out.
In 2010, Kinross Gold Corp. (full disclosure: I own this stock) bought Red Back Mining Inc. for $7.1-billion, only to write down the asset by $2.9-billion earlier this year after Kinross's share price had cratered.
Tye Burt lost his job as Kinross' chief executive this summer -- and the Red Back deal is seen as the most likely reason behind his abrupt departure.
Still, you would think that confidence in a rising gold price would override these concerns. Deal-making might be just the thing to draw investors back to the gold mining sector, providing a signal that executives stand behind their gold-price forecasts.
It is one thing for gold bugs -- whose enthusiasm never wavers -- to claim that gold has nowhere to go but up. But bullish enthusiasm from mining executives is another matter entirely. And they've gone awfully quiet.
Join GATA here:
New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 24-27, 2012
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
New Orleans, Louisiana
http://www.neworleansconference.com/
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin -September 28, 2012-..
| ADVFN III | Evening Euro Markets Bulletin | ||
| |||
Friday, 28 September 2012
| London Market Report | ||||||||||||||||||
 | ||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||
| Dull end to sparkling quarter Market Movers techMARK 2,115.49 -0.01% FTSE 100 5,742.07 -0.65% FTSE 250 11,734.10 -0.17% Early gains dissipated in London and by the time Wall Street opened lower investors were in the mood to bank some of this quarter's handsome gains; despite today's fall, the top share index still put on close to 250 points in the third quarter. Admiral on the rocksSentiment was boosted early on by consumer confidence data that was not as bad as feared. Consultancy GfK´s consumer confidence gauge for the month of September rose by 1 point in September, to -28. The consensus estimate was for a retreat to -30. The increase in the index comes after it was unchanged for four consecutive months and could mark the start of an improvement in consumer confidence after an extended period of weakness, commented analysts at Barclays Research. The UK´s index of services came in at a 1.1% month-on-month rate of change for July (Consensus: 1.5%). On a three month basis the gauge rose by 0.1%, ONS says, as expected. Car insurer Admiral was lower after the Office of Fair Trading (OFT) referred the private motor insurance market to the Competition Commission, as it is concerned that the market is not working well for motorists. Bearing in mind the OFT's move it was not, perhaps, the best day for state-owned lender Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) to release more details of its proposed flotation of its insurance arm, the Direct Line Group. The flotation will be priced somewhere between 160p and 195p per share. The maximum number of shares to be floated will be 575m shares, but the actual number is expected to be somewhere between 375m and 500m, which represent between one-quarter and one-third of the existing share capital of Direct Line. Final pricing is currently expected to be announced on or around October 11th, 2012, with conditional dealings in the shares on the London Stock Exchange beginning the same day. Bourses operator London Stock Exchange (LSE) has had a bad week. On Wednesday it revealed the extent to which equity trading volumes have been hit by worries over the Eurozone crisis. Today, it was bashed after it warned that proposed European regulatory changes will cut net treasury income over next financial year. Recommendations published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) and the European Banking Authority (EBA) look set to change the rules of the game, and differ considerably from the initial proposals published in March 2012. "If adopted in their current form, the recommendations will have some implications for LSE's existing wholly owned subsidiary CCP, CC&G," it added. The move could significantly reduce net interest income from its Italian clearing house, which currently accounts for over 15% of total group revenue. Nick Buckles, Group Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of security firm G4S, is to keep his job after dodging the blame in the group's internal report into the Olympics staffing fiasco. David Taylor-Smith, Chief Operating Officer and Regional Chief Executive Officer of UK and Africa, and Ian Horseman Sewell, Managing Director, G4S Global Events, have been thrown under the bus, however, leading to a shake-up in the management structure of G4S. Electronics components distributor Electrocomponents blew a fuse after it issued a profit warning. First half performance is now expected to be lower than anticipated, although the group expect profits in the second half to benefit from a combination of a return to sales growth and actions to improve operating margins. Pubs owner Mitchells and Butlers said like-for-like (LFL) sales increased 3% in the nine weeks to September 15th as the Olympic and Paralympic Games had little impact on overall sales. Total LFL sales for the 51 weeks to September rose 2.1% with food sales up 2.9% and drink sales up 1.4%. Multi-national design and engineering consultancy Hyder said it now expects first half pre-tax profit to be well ahead of previous forecasts, buoyed by the timing of performance bonuses earned in Australia. Package tour operator Thomas Cook issued the comforting news that it continues to expect full year results will be in line with market expectations, which were set by the group's interim management statement in August. The group has enjoyed a late surge in bookings from Brits anxious to escape the soggy summer. Vodafone has seen its price target slashed at Goldman Sachs, to 227p from 233p. Analysts at HSBC have upgraded their view on shares of Tesco to "overweight" but Seymour Pierce has gone the other way, downgrading their recommendation to "reduce" from "hold". Plumbers' merchant Wolseley was upgraded by Deutsche Bank to "buy" from "hold".
| ||||||||||||||||||
ADVFN III World Daily Markets Bulletin -September 28th, 2012-.
| ADVFN III | World Daily Markets Bulletin | ||
| |||
Friday, 28 September 2012
| US Market | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Stocks Under Considerable Pressure In Early Trading Stocks have shown a notable move to the downside over the course of early trading on Friday after ending the previous session sharply higher. The major averages have slid firmly into negative territory, offsetting yesterday's gains. The major averages have seen some further downside in the past few minutes, hitting new lows for the young session. The Dow is down 106.51 points or 0.8 percent at 13,379.46, the Nasdaq is down 20.23 points or 0.6 percent at 3,116.37 and the S&P 500 is down 10.39 points or 0.7 percent at 1,436.76. The early weakness on Wall Street is partly due to continued concerns about the financial situation in Europe, with traders waiting on the results of stress tests of Spanish banks. While the unveiling of Spain's budget for 2013 contributed to the rally that was seen on Thursday, analysts have noted that the country still faces difficult times ahead. Peter Boockvar, managing director at Miller Tabak, said, "The initial reaction yesterday was that maybe the Spanish news was enough to satisfy any potential conditions brought upon them with an eventual bailout request. Either way, Spain will be asking for help." "Noon time we'll see how much money the Spanish banking system will be thought to need for recaps, with 60 billion euros expected," he added. "The ESM though won't give Spain the money until banking oversight in the Euro zone is up and running and that may not be until 2013." Further selling pressure was recently generated by a report from the Institute for Supply Management - Chicago showing an unexpected contraction in Chicago-area business activity in the month of September. The ISM Chicago said its business barometer dropped to 49.7 in September from 53.0 in August, with a reading below 50 indicating a contraction in business activity. With the drop, the barometer fell to its lowest level in three years. Transportation stocks are seeing considerable weakness in early trading, dragging the Dow Jones Transportation Average down by 1.4 percent. With the loss, the average has fallen to its lowest intraday level in over three months. Housing, trucking, and steel stocks are also posting notable losses, moving lower along with most of the major sectors. In overseas trading, stock market across the Asia-Pacific region moved mostly higher on Friday, although Japanese stocks bucked the uptrend. While Japan's Nikkei 225 Index fell by 0.9 percent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.4 percent and China's Shanghai Composite Index jumped 1.5 percent. Meanwhile, the major European markets have turned lower over the course of the trading day. The French CAC 40 Index has tumbled 1.2 percent, while German DAX Index has dipped 0.3 percent and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index has edged down by 0.1 percent. In the bond market, treasuries are moving modestly higher after ending a recent winning streak on Thursday. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, is down by 1.3 basis points at 1.627 percent.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ADVFN III Weekly Forex Currency Review -September 28, 2012-.
| ADVFN III | Weekly FOREX Currency REVIEW | ||
| |||
Friday, 28 September 2012
| Weekly Market analysis | |||||||||||||||||||||||
The Federal Reserve quantitative easing will tend to keep the US dollar on the defensive and also help underpin global risk appetite. There will be the increasing threat of stresses between all major economies as they look to resist currency gains and there will be also be continuing concerns surrounding the global economy, especially with the potential for Euro-zone stresses to intensify again over the next few weeks. Key events for the forthcoming week
Dollar: There will be further uncertainties surrounding the US economic outlook, especially after weaker than expected data this week. The Federal Reserve will maintain a very expansionary monetary policy which will have an important impact in curbing underlying dollar demand. There will also be important fiscal uncertainty given that without any congressional action, there will be sharp tax increases next year. There is still the potential for the US economy to out-perform much of Europe which should provide some degree of dollar support. There will also still be protection from underlying fears surrounding the global growth outlook as fear is liable to increase again. The dollar strengthened during the first half of the week before retreating as the Fed’s quantitative easing programme was important in sapping underlying currency support. The latest US consumer confidence index was stronger than expected with an increase to above the 70 level for only the fourth time since early 2008 with a reading of 70.3 from a revised 61.3 previously. There was a gain for the Richmond Fed index and there was also a 1.2% annual increase in the Case-Shiller house-price index. The data will maintain a generally stronger tone surrounding the consumer sector and expectations that the US economy will be able to out-perform Europe. There were, however, concerns surrounding the US fiscal situation as Congress faces US$600bn in tax increases and spending cuts in 2013 unless there is a political deal. There were a series of significant US economic release during the session. The headline durable goods orders was much weaker than expected with a decline of 13.2% for August following a revised 3.3% gain the previous month and there was an underlying fall of 1.6%. Second-quarter GDP was revised down to 1.3% from a provisional 1.7%, but the labour-market data was more favourable as jobless claims fell to 359,000 from a revised 385,000 the previous week. The data overall maintained unease surrounding the growth outlook and underpinned the dovish Fed case
|
ADVFN III Morning Euro Markets Bulletin -September 28th, 2012-.
| ADVFN III | Morning Euro Markets Bulletin | ||
| |||
Friday, 28 September 2012
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)